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Disarmament Diplomacy
Issue No. 40, September - October 1999
US Report on 21st Century Security Threats
On September 15, the US Commission on National Security in the 21st
Century - a Pentagon-funded panel of experts set up by Defense
Secretary Cohen in 1998 - released its report. The panel is chaired
by former Senators Gary Hart (Democrat) and Warren Rudman
(Republican). Cautioning that "the American moment in world history
will not last forever," the report draws the following broad
conclusions: "Although a global competitor to the United States is
unlikely to rise over the next 25 years, emerging powers - whether
singly or in coalition - will increasingly constrain US options
regionally and limit its strategic influence... [We will have]
limited ability to impose our will and we will be increasingly
vulnerable to an increasing range of threats against American
forces and citizens overseas as well as at home... States,
terrorists and other disaffected groups will acquire weapons of
mass destruction...and some of them will use them... The most
serious threat to our security may consist of unannounced attacks
on American cities by sub-national groups using genetically
engineered pathogens... [F]or many years to come, Americans will
become increasingly less secure, and much less secure than they now
believe themselves to be". Among the report's other conclusions was
a prediction that weapons would be deployed in space.
Secretary Cohen, welcoming the report on the day of its release,
summarised the rest of the Commission's mandate: "This first report
sets the context for the Commission's next two phases. By next
Spring they will draft a set of US interests and objectives for the
first quarter of the 21st Century and propose a strategy to meet
them. They will then conduct an assessment of the structures and
processes involved in the formulation and execution of national
security policy. To the extent future challenges and current
systems are incompatible, the Commission will recommend changes and
draft a plan to implement them".
Reports: Secretary Cohen statement on US Commission on
National Security/21st Century's First Report, US Defense
Department Press Release 424-99, September 15; Panel forecasts US
challenges in 21st Century, Reuters, September 15; Panel -
Americans face new dangers, Associated Press, September 16.
© 1999 The Acronym Institute.
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