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On February 27, the 'Doomsday Clock' - run since 1947 by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in Chicago to publicise significant shifts to or away from the abyss of nuclear war - was moved from nine to seven minutes to midnight, its most ominous reading since the end of the Cold War, and the same 'time' as the clock's original setting.
As noted in a statement from the Bulletin's Board of Directors: "We move the hands taking into account both negative and positive developments. ... If it were not for the positive changes [we have identified]...the hands of the clock might have moved closer still."
Three positive developments were listed, though not without qualification. First - "Since we last set the clock in 1998 [following the nuclear tests by India and Pakistan], the 187 governments party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, including the major nuclear powers, agreed to a comprehensive set of commitments and measures to enhance non-proliferation and fulfil long-standing disarmament pledges. ... In this regard, we welcome France's dismantling of its Pacific nuclear test site and military reprocessing facilities and commend Britain's research programme on verifying multilateral reductions in nuclear weapons as early steps in the right direction." Second - "US funding and technical assistance continues to make significant and cost-effective contributions to international security by working to ensure that Russian nuclear weapons are dismantled, and that nuclear materials and nuclear expertise do not leave Russia. Much remains to be done, however. After initially questioning the value of these cooperative programmes, the Bush administration now seeks to increase their funding." And third - "President Bush's announcement in November 2001 that US 'operationally deployed strategic warheads' would be reduced to between 1,700 to 2,200 by 2012...is positive news. ... Although there are serious questions about how permanent these reductions will be, and how long they will take to enact, they are nevertheless an important step away from the grotesque levels of the Cold War."
These modest pluses, however, were to be judged in the following harsh light: "too little progress on global nuclear disarmament", "the continuing US preference for unilateral action rather than cooperative international diplomacy", "US abandonment of the ABM Treaty", "US efforts to thwart the enactment of international agreements designed to constrain proliferation of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons", "the crisis between India and Pakistan", "terrorist efforts to acquire and use nuclear and biological weapons", and "the growing inequality between rich and poor around the world that increases the potential for violence and war."
Presenting the statement, George Lopez, the Director of the Board, told reporters: "Despite a campaign promise to rethink nuclear policy, the Bush administration has taken no significant steps to alter nuclear policy or reduce the alert status of US nuclear forces. Meanwhile, domestic weapons laboratories continue to refine existing warheads and design new weapons, with an emphasis on the ability to destroy deeply buried targets... Terrorist efforts to acquire and use nuclear and biological weapons present a grave danger. But the US reference for the use of pre-emptive force rather than diplomacy could be equally dangerous."
Reports: It's seven minutes to midnight, Statement by the Board of Directors, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, February 27 (http://www.thebulletin.org); Scientists reset 'doomsday clock' toward danger, Reuters, February 28; Group cites rising nuclear policy fears in resetting 'Doomsday Clock', Washington Post, February 28.
© 2002 The Acronym Institute.