Disarmament Diplomacy
Issue No. 13, February - March 1997
CTBT Moves to Vienna
by Rebecca Johnson
The resumed Preparatory Commission of the Comprehensive Test Ban
Treaty Organisation (CTBTO), chaired by Ambassador Jacob Selebi of
South Africa, concluded its meeting in Geneva, 3-11 March, by
agreeing the budget and establishment of the CTBTO, to be headed by
Wolfgang Hoffmann of Germany. After the difficulties and
disappointments of New York in November 1996, Hoffmann was clearly
relieved that the PrepCom passed off so successfully this time.
Preparing to leave Geneva, where he has been Disarmament Ambassador
since 1993, Hoffmann said that the PrepCom had 'done everything it
should do, with nothing left open.'
The successful decisions followed weeks of intensive
behind-the-scenes consultations to resolve the problems over
structure, staffing and budget that had prevented agreement four
months earlier. In New York the decisions on how the CTBTO should
be structured became tangled with different States' bids for their
personnel to be appointed to key positions in the new hierarchy.
Some countries, including Iran and France, retained serious
reservations about the way in which the CTBTO was to be
constituted, but in the end Selebi managed to forge agreement,
enabling work to begin. After much debate, a budget of $28 million
was agreed for the first nine months. This will enable the
Provisional Technical Secretariat (PTS) to be established at the
Vienna International Centre (VIC). The budget is also intended to
cover the initial setting up costs for the international monitoring
system (IMS) and the international data centre (IDC). However, some
of the scientists most closely involved with the verification
regime have expressed concern that cuts in investment earmarked for
the seismic network could have an adverse effect on the ability of
the verification regime to be fully operational by September 1998,
as planned.
Hoffmann, who also chaired the Nuclear Test Ban Committee's
working group on Verification during the CTBT negotiations in 1994,
was appointed Executive Secretary of the PTS. He will sign the Host
Country Agreement with Austria on 18 March and take up his new post
in Vienna immediately. The directors of the five divisions were
agreed as follows:
Administration: William B Davitte (USA)
Legal and External Relations: Masabumi Sato (Japan)
On-site Inspections: Vladimir Kryuchenkov (Russian
Federation)
Verification - International Monitoring System: Gerardo Suarez
(Mexico)
Verification - International Data Centre: Rashad M Kebeasy
(Egypt)
The Administration Division will cover general services,
finance, personnel, conference services and procurement. In
addition to legal services and external relations, the Legal and
External Relations Division will cover public information and
international cooperation. The OSI Division will have to be
responsible for developing the procedures and equipment for
geophysical and radionuclide inspections, drilling, transport,
overflights and training. The IDC Division will cover monitoring,
scientific methods and data fusion, communications and
infrastructure, and training in IDC-related technology and
interpretation. The IMS Division will also cover training and the
setting up of seismic, hydroacoustic, radionuclide and infrasound
monitoring stations as specified in the treaty. In addition to the
office of the Executive Secretary, monitoring of progress towards
establishing the CTBTO will be overseen by teams responsible for
internal auditing and evaluation of the verification regime.
Two working groups were also convened, comprising
representatives from countries which have signed the treaty. As of
1 March, 142 countries had signed, including the P-5 nuclear-weapon
States (Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States) and
Israel. Of the 44 countries whose ratification is required by
article XIV before the Treaty can enter into force, only three have
not signed: India, Pakistan and North Korea. In view of India's
stated objections to the CTBT, which it had blocked in the CD, a
large number of delegates in November queried the urgency of
setting up the verification regime, reflecting doubt that the entry
into force conditions would be met any time soon. This sentiment
was less in evidence in Geneva in March (or at least further below
the surface), as CTBT signatories looked forward to moving the test
ban treaty out of Geneva and setting up the new organisation in
Vienna.
The two working groups are Working Group A on Budgetary and
Administrative Matters, chaired by Tibor Toth of Hungary and
Working Group B on Verification, chaired by Ola Dahlman of Sweden.
Dr Dahlman was formerly the Chair of the Group of Scientific
Experts (GSE) which studied seismic verification under the auspices
of the CD's NTB Committee, culminating in the third technical test
of a provisional worldwide seismic network, known as GSETT-3.
According to preliminary assessments, the IMS primary seismic
network, some of which is based on GSETT-3, is 64 percent complete,
with the auxiliary seismic network covering 32 percent of the
stations identified in the CTBT verification protocol. However,
there is still a long way to go on the other three technologies
which comprise the IMS: the hydroacoustic network is estimated to
be 27 percent in place; the radionuclide network about 15 percent
complete; but only 2 percent of the proposed infrasound network is
set up. Fourteen countries earmarked to host stations in the IMS
have not yet signed the treaty. In June 1996, at the height of the
battle over the CTBT's entry into force, India withdrew its three
stations, which appeared as 'to be determined' in the adopted
treaty text. It is understood that there have not yet been any
discussion of the implications of this and other gaps due to any
country's failure to sign.
It will be the task of Working Group B during 1997 to develop
technical specifications, requirements, policies, guidelines,
procedures and documentation (including manuals and training)
relating to inspections, as well as the IMS, IDC and
communications. Working Group A, chaired by Tibor Toth, focused on
a programme of work for the rest of 1997, according to which it
will prioritise the development of staffing and financial
regulations, rules of procedure for the CTBTO and the 1998 draft
budget. Smaller expert groups may also be convened to work out
details on particular issues.
With these historic decisions, Geneva has now waved farewell to
the 'the longest sought, hardest fought prize in arms control
history'. The CTBT goes to Vienna, with the hope that all the work
and resources put into setting up the verification regime will be
justified by its timely implementation and entry into force.
However, with India adamantly opposed, and Pakistan waiting on
India's decision, the prospect does not look very optimistic.
Resolving their altercation over the intended meaning of the term
'anniversary' in the text, signatories have agreed that the
entry-into-force conference described in article XIV may be held
after September 1999. However, with understandings in the
negotiating record that this conference will not be empowered to
waive the entry into force conditions nor impose sanctions on any
hold-outs, there is considerable cynicism that this 'handwringing
conference' will be able to bring the treaty into effect if the
political will remains lacking. All in all, the best hope for the
CTBT's entry into force is irreversible nuclear arms reduction,
further progress on nuclear disarmament, and greater regional
security and confidence building in South Asia.
© 1998 The Acronym Institute.
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