Disarmament Diplomacy

Issue No. 64, May - June 2002

News Review

US-China Non-Proliferation Talks Make Limited Headway

Speaking in Geneva on March 16, US Assistant Secretary of State for Non-Proliferation John Wolf expressed pleasure at the latest round of talks with China on a range of non-proliferation issues. The discussions, led on the US side by Wolf and on the Chinese side by senior Foreign Ministry official Liu Jieyu, centred once again on Washington's suspicions, vehemently denied in Beijing, that China is not fully implementing a November 2000 commitment to permanently halt all ballistic missile or missile-related exports, particularly to Iran and Pakistan. Wolf told reporters: "We had good talks that were far more substantive than the previous talks I had last fall... We had a good discussion on a variety of non-proliferation issues, especially related to export controls, and not just in the missile area... Liu provided new information. We're considering it. And I suspect we'll want to talk again..." The same day, an unnamed US official briefed reporters: "Liu informed us what they are doing with nuclear export controls, CBW [chemical and biological weapons] export controls, and missile technology, and in all those areas they professed [that] they are in the process of tightening their export controls..."

Following failure to achieve a breakthrough on the issue in advance of President Bush's visit to Beijing in late February (see last issue), the diplomatic 'Plan A' now seems to be to reach agreement in time for Vice President Hu Jintao's visit to the US in late April. However, speaking to foreign correspondents in Washington on April 16, Wolf sounded markedly more measured in his assessment of progress:

"Question: 'What do you think is the likelihood of China signing on to the 2000 agreement you were speaking to them about?'

Wolf: 'We have had at least five or six rounds of discussions with Chinese officials since last summer on restoring the November 2000 agreement on...holding the spread of missile technology. The issues that need to be addressed, I think, are very clear to Chinese officials, and the issues are very important. China has said that its policy is one of not allowing proliferation of missile technology capable of supporting rockets that can go further than 300 kilometers, or carry a payload more than 500 kilograms, or actually capable of carrying a nuclear device. And we think it's important that China put in place the export controls that will achieve that, and then rigorously enforce those controls across...the Chinese marketplace. So...the discussions continue, but actions are what are necessary, not talk. And the actions would be issuance of the export controls, and then firm implementation...of that to cut off the kinds of efforts which undercut that commitment not to export missile technology [and] missile-related technology.'

Question: 'Did China promise to you that they would tighten the control of export in terms of WMD themselves? If so, is it possible that the United States would sign on any agreement with China by the time when Vice President Hu Jintao comes to Washington?'

John Wolf: 'I think the point for China is that it has stated, as its policy, that it does not condone and it will not support proliferation of missile technology - missile technology, nuclear technology, chemical and biological technology. It states that as a matter of...policy. And we welcome that, because they're not doing a favor to us; they're defining their national interests. And they, like many others, make the point that it is not in China's interest to have countries acquiring weapons of mass destruction and the means to deliver them. ... It's important to get those laws and those regulations in place. And it is important for them then to rigorously enforce their laws. It's all the worse to have laws on the books and have people who violate the laws freely. So we will see where those discussions go. We can't force the pace. It's for China to determine when it does what it chooses to do. They have told us that they intend to tighten up their controls in the four areas. We look forward to seeing that in the marketplace. More importantly, we look forward to seeing how those new export controls are implemented. It is important, as we work together on our broad relationship - this is an important issue where we still have differences - to carry the broad relationship forward that President Bush and President Ziang have talked about. We need to deal with some of the overhang that's still there, and we're not yet in perfect harmony on the questions of non-proliferation. The discussions - the words point in the right direction, but the actions are not yet there.'"

For its part, China has often complained not only of having its export policies misrepresented by American officials and the 'anti-China' lobby in Congress and the media, but also of US policies which Beijing sees as provocative and destabilising - particularly plans to build missile defences in Asia, and continued arms sales to Taiwan. In Beijing on March 16, the same day as Wolf's upbeat comments in Geneva, Vice Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing reacted with unusually strong language to news that Taiwanese Defence Minister Tang Yiau-ming had recently met with Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and other senior Pentagon officials at a private defence industry convention in Florida - reportedly the highest level meeting between the two defence ministries for at least 25 years. Li railed: "The days when China could be bullied are gone forever... [Such provocations will] simply increase the determination of the Chinese people to safeguard their sovereignty... The United States must abandon the idea of Taiwan as an unsinkable aircraft carrier. Taiwan has been a burden on US shoulders for more than half a century. We don't see any good in the US continuing to shoulder that burden - it will simply drop a stone on its own toes."

Reports: China accuses US of 'nuclear blackmail', Reuters, March 16; US sees progress on China missile dispute, Reuters, March 16; China laments US 'erroneous acts', Associated Press, March 19; China - US officials hope for arms control agreement in April Global Security Newswire, March 22; Transcript - Assistant Secretary Wolf on Non-Proliferation issues, Washington File, April 16.

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