Disarmament Diplomacy

Issue No. 67, October - November 2002

News Review

US and Russia Discuss Agenda for Moscow Treaty Era

The first meeting of the US-Russia Consultative Group for Strategic Security - established by Presidents Vladimir Putin and George W. Bush at the Moscow summit in May - was held in Washington on September 20. The Group is designed to focus discussions between the Russian Foreign and Defence Minister (Igor Ivanov and Sergei Ivanov) and US Secretaries of State and Defense (Colin Powell and Donald Rumsfeld) to review progress in nuclear arms control issues and the broader 'New Strategic Relationship' between the two sides. The Russian ministers also held discussions with President Bush. Addressing reporters at the National Press Club (September 20), Foreign Minister Ivanov declared himself encouraged by the talks:

"As you know, today US President...received the Defense Minister of Russia...and me. Also today, a telephone conversation took place between our presidents. So active a political dialogue between our states, including at the top level, vividly demonstrates the new level of mutual relations which is enshrined in the Joint Declaration on the New Strategic Partnership between Russia and the USA... Russia follows the principle enunciated in this document. Russia is interested in developing a constructive partnership, predictable relations with the United States of America. The development of just this kind of relations meets the interests of our two peoples, and it meets the interests of the international community. We are convinced that by relying upon these principles, Russia and the USA can jointly search for answers to new threats and challenges, to the regional problems still persistent in the world. It was important for us to hear from US President Bush that the United States also intends to firmly adhere to these principles in relations with Russia, which the US administration regards as a long-term strategic priority. Therefore, unfortunately, I'll have to disappoint those who in recent days have begun to speculate about a cooling-off in Russian-American relations. That simply isn't so. ... On [a] constructive cooperation between Russia and the US, which are the largest nuclear powers, the future of strategic stability in the world depends in many respects. That was why the Presidents of our countries took a decision this May during the summit in Moscow to establish the Russian-US Constructive Group for Strategic Security made up of Foreign Ministers and Defense Ministers. The first meeting of this group was held today. We thoroughly discussed ways to implement the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty... We examined the problems of transparency in cooperation in missile defense and a full range of non-proliferation problems... I want to at once stress that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov and I are satisfied with the frankness and substantive character of our dialogue and for our part are ready to continue that constructive work. In the same constructive spirit we will be looking for ways to solve the still-lingering differences. Anyway, I am convinced, and our American partners share this opinion, that after today's meetings many approaches, positions of each other have become clearer and this is very important."

As mentioned by the minister, the centrepiece of the new relationship is the Strategic Offensive Reductions (SOR) Treaty, also known as the Moscow Treaty, signed at the May summit and mandating the reduction of operationally-deployed strategic nuclear warheads to a maximum range of 1,700-2,000 per side by 2012. Despite serious reservations, voiced by politicians and commentators in both countries, concerning the treaty's lack of procedures for either verifying the reductions or destroying the warheads or delivery systems to be withdrawn from active service, the accord is expected to receive prompt approval, as required for entry-into-force, from both the US Senate and Russian Duma and Federation Council. On October 15, a Foreign Ministry statement summarised the latest step in the Russian ratification process:

"Parliamentary hearings on the Russia-USA Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty took place in the Federation Council International Affairs and Defence and Security Committees on October 15. Speakers at the hearings included Georgy Mamedov, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, and Colonel-General Yuri Baluyevsky, First Deputy Chief of the Russian Armed Forces General Staff, who gave thorough explanations of the provisions of the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty and the Joint Declaration on the New Strategic Relationship... They also informed deputies of the first meeting of the Consultative Group for Strategic Security with the participation of the US and Russian Foreign and Defense Ministers, held in Washington on September 20, noting that as a result an important mechanism of Russian-US cooperation had been launched on such issues as strategic offensive and defensive arms, missile defense, the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and regional strategic stability. Participants in the hearings discussed in detail various aspects of the upcoming implementation of the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty in the context of its ratification. There are...grounds, it was noted, to ratify the Treaty before the end of the current year."

As reported in the last issue, on June 13 the unilateral American withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty was completed, leaving Washington with a free hand to press ahead with plans to develop and deploy a range of missile defence systems. While Russia continues to describe the abrogation of the ABM Treaty as a mistake - and to warn of the danger that the development of extensive missile defences may lead to the deployment of space-based weapons - official criticism of the American programme is increasingly rare and muted, replaced by emphasis on possible cooperation with the US and NATO on theatre missile defence (TMD) projects.

US plans, however, remain a matter of some dispute domestically. On August 21, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld exuded optimism over the technical development of the main systems under development: "We're testing a layered program which involves a terminal phase, midcourse, as well as boost phase. It is a...program that will become layered. It will start out as a test bed and then evolve over time... We've had some very good successes with [intercepting] both short-range missiles as well as longer-range missiles... I feel very good about the program." Earlier in August, however, it was reported that technical difficulties had forced the postponement of full-scale production of the Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC-3) missile-interceptor system for at least one year. Although the PAC-3 is not designed to intercept strategic-range ballistic missiles, it is widely regarded as an important forerunner of such interceptors, and had been regarded as a secure candidate for production. Among the technical problems mentioned in reports were numerous failures to launch and repeated failures to intercept. Quoted in the Washington Post on August 5, Philip E. Coyle, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Test and Evaluation under President Clinton, read a broad cautionary message into the PAC-3's travails: "It's a hard thing to compress. It's not just a matter of the number of tests; it's trying to capture all the conditions that a weapons system is likely to confront."

In early September, details emerged of a recommendation made in August by the Pentagon's advisory Defense Science Board (DSB) that the focus of the missile defence programme be radically narrowed - to just two experimental approaches - due to mounting technical problems and financial pressures. The two favoured avenues of development are: land-based interceptors designed to destroy missiles in midcourse-flight through space; and ship-based interceptors designed to destroy missiles either in their initial - boost and ascent - flight-phase. According to an anonymous source quoted in the Washington Post on September 3: "The program needs to get away from the relative comfort of having a wide-open horizon with no defined architecture... It needs to focus on a much narrower set of initial capabilities in order to get something that's worth fielding." The Post quoted an unnamed senior Pentagon official as conceding: "We've got some tough choices to make. The DSB report is one set of recommendations going into the hopper for decision-making, but it's certainly an influential set."

On October 14, the Pentagon announced the latest landmark in its missile defence testing programme. According to a Defense Department press release: "The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) today...successfully completed a flight test of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) development program, intercepting an intercontinental ballistic missile target over the central Pacific Ocean in the Western Test Range. A modified Minuteman intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) target vehicle was launched from Vandenberg AFB, Calif., at 10:00 p.m. EDT, and a prototype interceptor was launched approximately 22 minutes later and 4,800 miles away from the Ronald Reagan Missile Site, Kwajalein Atoll, in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. The intercept took place approximately six minutes after the interceptor was launched, at an altitude in excess of 140 miles above the earth, and during the midcourse phase of the target warhead's flight. This was the fifth successful intercept - and the fourth consecutive - in seven flight tests since October 1999 for the GMD program." The statement brimmed with further details:

"This test involved for the first time the participation of a US Navy Aegis destroyer, the USS John Paul Jones, using its SPY-1 radar system to track the flight of the target missile. Although the radar was not integrated into the battle management system for the intercept, it did gather important data on the capabilities of the radar against a long-range ballistic missile. This system-level test successfully demonstrated 'hit to kill' technology to intercept and destroy a long-range ballistic missile target. In addition to the Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV) locating, tracking, and intercepting the target resulting in its destruction using only body-to-body impact, this test also demonstrated the successful integrated operation of space and ground-based sensors and radars, as well as the Battle Management, Command Control and Communications (BMC3) function to detect the launch of the target missile, cue an early warning radar to provide more detailed target location data; and integration of a prototype X-Band radar (based at Kwajalein) to provide precise target data to the EKV, which received the target updates from the In-Flight Interceptor Communications Systems (IFICS) at Kwajalein. The EKV separated from its rocket booster more than 1,400 miles from the target warhead. After separation, it used its on-board infrared and visual sensors, augmented with the X-Band radar data provided by BMC3 via the In-flight Interceptor Communications System, to locate and track the target. Sensors aboard the EKV also successfully selected the mock warhead from among the five objects in the target array, including three decoys. Only system-generated data was used for the intercept after the EKV separated from its booster rocket. Tonight's test is a major step in an aggressive developmental test program, and will continue the pursuit of a testing regime to achieve a layered approach to missile defense, using different architectures to deter the growing threat of ballistic missiles carrying weapons of mass destruction. Over the next several weeks, government and industry program officials will conduct an extensive analysis of the data received during the flight test to determine whether anomalies or malfunctions occurred during the test, evaluate system performance and determine whether or not all flight test objectives were met. Since the system is in the developmental phase of design and testing, performance of individual elements and the overall system integration was as important as the actual intercept."

Related material on Acronym website:

• US-Russia Discussions, Washington, September 20

Reports: Missile defense program changes course, Washington Post, August 5; Military to postpone PAC-3 full acquisition, Global Security Newswire, August 22; Missile defense progress is 'impressive', Bush says, Global Security Newswire, August 22; Missile defense choices sought, Washington Post, September 3; Bush urged to narrow missile defense focus, Reuters, September 3; Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Igor Ivanov's press conference at US National Press Club, Washington, September 20, 2002, Russian Foreign Ministry transcript; Remarks by Alexander Yakovenko, official spokesman of Russian Foreign Ministry, September 24, Russian Foreign Ministry transcript; Parliament set to vote on ratification of US-Russian nuclear deal in December, Associated Press, October 1; Missile intercept test successful, US Department of Defense Press Release No. 520-02, October 14; On the consideration in the Federal Council of the Federal Assembly of the question of ratification of the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty between Russia and the USA, Russian Foreign Ministry Statement, Document 2097-15-10-2002, October 15.

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© 2002 The Acronym Institute.