|
Disarmament DocumentationBack to Disarmament Documentation 29% probability of nuclear attack in the next ten years, Lugar Survey on Proliferation, June 28, 2005A Survey published by Senator Richard Lugar asked experts to give their opinion on the probability of a nuclear, chemical, biological or radiological attack in the next five or ten years. Full text is available at http://lugar.senate.gov/reports/NPSurvey.pdf. According to the experts surveyed, the possibility of a WMD attack against a city or other target somewhere in the world is real and increasing over time. Even within the short time frame of the next five years, the risks of such an attack were judged to be substantial. The median estimate of the risk of a nuclear attack during the next 5 years was 10%. The average estimate was 16.4%. When the time frame was extended to 10 years, the median response doubled to 20% and the average response almost doubled to 29.2%. The estimates of the risks of a biological or chemical attack during the same time periods were each judged to be comparable to or slightly higher than the risk of a nuclear attack. Source: Senator Lugar's website, http://lugar.senate.gov/reports/NPSurvey.pdf © 2005 The Acronym Institute. |