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Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lieutenant General Michael D. Maples, U.S. Army on Current and Projected National Security Threats to the United States, February 28, 2006

'Current and Projected National Security Threats to the United States', Lieutenant General Michael D. Maples, U.S. Army Director, Defense Intelligence Agency, February 28, 2006. Full text is available at: http://armed-services.senate.gov/statemnt/2006/February/Maples%2002-28-06.pdf

Excerpts

INTRODUCTION

Good morning Mr. Chairman, Mr. Vice Chairman and members of the committee. It is my honor and privilege to testify before you today. I am also honored to lead the dedicated men and women of the Defense Intelligence Agency. These outstanding military and civilian intelligence professionals provide our war fighters, defense planners, and national security policy makers with information and knowledge essential to our national security. Many of our young intelligence professionals are executing their missions in remote and dangerous environments. I thank them for their service and the magnificent work they are doing for our nation. I would also like to thank you for your continued support for Defense Intelligence; our capability to focus on potential threats to the nation is essential. The threat testimony I am about to present represents what we know and judge to be the threats to our country, citizens, allies, and interests around the world today.

The United States faces a variety of complex transnational threats and potential threats from states of concern. My testimony will outline the current threat from Global Terrorism and the state of the insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan. It will highlight the challenges of proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction. Finally, I will discuss developments in states of concern and other transnational issues that present both challenges and opportunities to enhance our national security...

CBRN Terrorism. Several terrorist groups, particularly al-Qaida, remain interested in Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) weapons. Al- Qaida's stated intention to conduct an attack exceeding the destruction of 9/11 raises the possibility that future attacks may involve unconventional weapons.

WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION

Weapons of Mass Destruction and the means to deliver them continue to mature in a number of countries, posing a significant threat to our homeland, allies, deployed forces, and international interests. Behind global terrorism, they represent the most significant threat we face.

Nuclear. We believe that North Korea continued to produce plutonium for its nuclear weapons program from its 5-Megawatt Yongbyon reactor in 2005. However, we do not know with certainty that North Korea has any nuclear weapons. Additionally, activity at the Yongbyon 50-megawatt reactor suggests Pyongyang is seeking to convince Washington it will follow through on threats to resume construction on this unfinished nuclear reactor, adding another source for weapons-grade plutonium.

We believe Iran is committed to acquiring a nuclear weapon and is currently developing its nuclear infrastructure, which could produce highly enriched uranium and plutonium for that purpose. Despite a suspension agreement with the EU-3 and a noncompliance finding at the September 2005 IAEA Board of Governors meeting, the Iranian government broke with the Paris Accord and resumed activities at its uranium conversion and centrifuge research and development facilities.

One of China's top military priorities is to strengthen and modernize its strategic nuclear deterrent force by increasing its size, accuracy and survivability. It is likely the number of deployed Chinese nuclear-armed theater and strategic systems will increase in the next several years. China currently has more than 100 nuclear warheads. We believe China has sufficient fissile material to support this growth.

We believe that India and Pakistan also continue expanding and modernizing their nuclear weapon stockpiles. Pakistan has also developed the capability to produce plutonium for potential weapons use.

Chemical and Biological Weapons. States with chemical and biological programs remain a threat to our deployed forces, homeland and interests. Some states have produced and weaponized agents whereas others have not advanced beyond research and development. For example, we believe that Iran maintains offensive chemical and biological weapons capabilities in various stages of development. We believe Syria already has a stockpile of the nerve agent sarin and apparently has tried to develop a more toxic and persistent nerve agent. We also believe the Syrian government maintains an offensive biological weapons research and development program.

Ballistic Missiles. China continues to expand and modernize its ballistic missile forces to increase their survivability and warfighting capabilities, enhance their coercion and deterrence value and overcome ballistic missile defenses. Beijing is developing a new submarine launched ballistic missile, the 8,000+ kilometer range JL-2. China has begun flight testing all these systems, which likely will be ready for deployment later this decade. China continues to develop new short, medium and intermediate ballistic missiles and has fielded numerous short range ballistic missiles to brigades near Taiwan.

North Korea continues to invest in its ballistic missile forces for diplomatic advantage, foreign sales and to defend itself against attack. During 2005, a new solidpropellant short range ballistic missile was tested, and Pyongyang is likely developing intermediate and intercontinental ballistic missile capabilities.

Overall numbers of Russian strategic ballistic missiles continue to decline. Nevertheless, Russian leaders are committed to maintaining these forces as a credible nuclear deterrent and symbol of great power status. Russia has flight-tested a new submarine launched ballistic missile, the Bulava-30. Russia continues development of the SS-27 and is developing and fielding maneuvering missiles and payloads to help defeat ballistic missile defenses.

Iran continues work on its ballistic missile programs. Tehran is developing ballistic missiles to target Tel Aviv and press reporting suggests Iran is acquiring longerrange ballistic missiles capable of striking central Europe.

India and Pakistan maintain aggressive ballistic missile programs. India flight tested a submarine launched ballistic missile for the first time in spring 2005. Pakistan is developing a new medium range ballistic missile.

Cruise Missiles. The threat to deployed U.S. forces and our allies posed by cruise missiles, which include land-attack cruise missiles, lethal unmanned aerial vehicles, and anti-ship cruise missiles, is expected to increase though 2010. Several countries began or continued to develop and produce new land attack cruise missiles and/or anti-ship cruise missiles in 2005. Advancements in technology will increase the difficulty in countering modern anti-ship cruise missiles. Several anti-ship cruise missiles will have a secondary land-attack capability. New land attack cruise missiles and lethal unmanned aerial vehicles entering service, as well as their proliferation, will increase the threat to landbased assets.

OTHER STATES OF CONCERN

Iran. Tehran will back the emerging Iraqi government to ensure a nonthreatening, stable neighbor, while thwarting any U.S. and Coalition interest to extend operations into Iran.

Tehran maintains relationships with numerous Iraqi Shia factions, and will maintain its support for Iraqi Shia elements working in contrast to Coalition goals. We believe Iran has provided lethal aid to Iraqi Shia insurgents. In addition to supporting Iraqi elements, Iran will continue to support Lebanese Hizballah and Palestinian rejectionist groups in the region, posing a threat to U.S. interests.

Iran's military developments have centered on its ballistic missile program, which Tehran views as its primary deterrent. Over the past year, Iran continued testing its medium-range ballistic missile and also tested anti-ship missiles. Iran recently concluded a deal with Russia for approximately 30 short-range air defense systems, as well as other military hardware. When these systems become fully operational, they will significantly enhance Iran's defensive capabilities and ability to deny access to the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz.

Syria. The Syrian government has somewhat improved security along the Iraq border and increased arrests of foreign fighters and al-Qaida elements. Nevertheless, Syria remains the primary transit route for Iraq-bound foreign fighters and is a safe-haven for Iraqi Baathists and other former regime elements.

Damascus continues to support Lebanese Hizballah and provide several Palestinian rejectionist groups safe-haven.

Syria continues to make some improvements to its conventional forces, but did not make any major weapons acquisitions in 2005.

North Korea. Persuading North Korea to follow through on its September 2005 pledge to abandon all its nuclear weapons programs is a significant challenge for the U.S. and the other Six-Party Talks participants. We expect the North will employ tactics at future talks to maximize its own economic benefit and minimize what it must yield.

While Pyongyang appears intent on continuing the current North-South dialogue, it maintains a military force of approximately one million personnel. The majority are deployed close to the South Korean border.

North Korean military forces continue to suffer the consequences of the North's economic decline, but remain capable of initiating an attack on South Korea. North Korea's large force provides the regime with an effective deterrent against the more prosperous and modern South and the self-perceived option of employing threats and bravado to influence policy in Washington and Seoul.

China. China's military modernization remains focused on developing or acquiring modern fighter aircraft, a blue-water navy, and improved amphibious forces. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) completed its plan to cut 200,000 soldiers from the Army, likely freeing resources for other modernization efforts. The PLA is also emphasizing counterterrorism, domestic security and maritime deployments. China's announced defense budget in 2005 was approximately $30 billion, continuing a trend of double digit increases.

Eventual unification with Taiwan remains a national goal. Chinese efforts to strengthen its economy, enhance its international influence, and increase military capabilities will better enable it to isolate and undermine pro-separation political forces on Taiwan.

China will continue to be instrumental in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue. Over the past year, Beijing played a constructive role in facilitating the Six-Party Talks process.

China's global engagement has become more active. Beijing's need to sustain economic development and gain access to markets, raw materials and resources, as well as its desire to build global influence and limit Taiwan's international contacts, is driving this activity. Moscow remains an important strategic and military partner for Beijing. Last summer's Sino-Russia military exercise involved air, naval, amphibious and ground operations.

China's energy demands, particularly petroleum, have risen sharply. China is the world's second largest consumer and third largest importer of oil. Economic growth will ensure this trend continues. In response, Beijing has launched a worldwide search to address petroleum requirements, investing in oil sectors of regimes like Sudan and Iran.

Russia. Despite an improving economy, Moscow has not addressed difficult domestic problems that will limit the scale and scope of military recovery. Russia faces increasingly negative demographic trends, a smaller number of draft-age males and worsening public health problems.

Central Asian States. All five Central Asian regimes - Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan - operate under varying degrees of authoritarian leadership, repression and corruption. Each will continue to face internal stability challenges in coming years, primarily due to poor governance, porous borders, crime, corruption, unemployment, and poverty. If living standards and governance fail to improve, the spread of Islamic extremism could pose a further threat to stability.

All Central Asian states will continue to voice support for the GWOT, but fears of Western support for local democratic movements will hinder cooperation. Basing and overflight rights for coalition forces supporting Operation Enduring Freedom will likely continue to be granted on a case-by-case basis...

Space and Space-Denial Capabilities. Although Russia and China are the primary states of concern regarding military space and space-denial programs, the increasing availability of space technology, products, and services is providing other countries with selective capabilities in key areas. Worldwide, this availability is fueled by the proliferation of advanced satellite technologies, including small satellite systems, and increased cooperation and activity among nation-states and space-related consortia. These developments provide some countries new or more capable communications, reconnaissance, and targeting capabilities as most space systems have dual-use, militarycivilian applications.

Several countries are developing capabilities which threaten U.S. space assets. Some countries already have fielded systems with inherent anti-satellite capabilities, such as satellite-tracking laser range-finding devices and nuclear-armed ballistic missiles. A few countries have programs seeking improved space object tracking and kinetic or directed energy weapons capabilities. However, researching these technologies is expensive and most are not expected to be widely available within the next few years. Other states and non-state entities are pursuing more limited and asymmetric approaches which do not require extensive resources or a high-tech industrial base. These efforts include denial and deception, electronic warfare or signal jamming, and ground segment physical attack.

Our nation is engaged in a long war against terrorism and violent extremism, and we are faced with a multitude of that can affect our national security interests. Defense intelligence professionals will continue to provide the necessary information to our warfighters, defense planners and national security policy makers. Providing support to our soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines engaged in the Global War on Terrorism and insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan is our first priority. We are focusing considerable resources to help prevent or counter proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction. We must also monitor states of concern and other transnational issues. Developments in these areas provide the potential for future challenges and opportunities to promote our national security. I look forward to your questions.

Source: Senate Armed Services Committee, http://armed-services.senate.gov/.

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