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Disarmament Diplomacy
Issue No. 39, July - August 1999
Report Questions Satisfactoriness of US Non-Proliferation
Policy
On 14 July, a bi-partisan Congressional Commission set up to
investigate the adequacy of US non-proliferation policy and
preparedness, published a wide-ranging and sometimes disconcerting
report, 18 months in the making, the broad and chilling conclusion
of which is that "the US Government is not effectively organized to
combat proliferation." The 12-member Commission to Assess the
Organization of the Federal Government to Combat the Proliferation
of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) was chaired by John Deutch,
former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and
vice-chaired by Senator Arlen Specter (Republican - Pennsylvania).
Speaking at a press conference to launch the report, Deutch stated
bluntly: "Terrorist use of weapons of mass destruction against the
United States is a very real possibility." Specter, a former chair
of the Senate Intelligence Committee, confessed himself to have
been "terrified" by a number of the classified briefings the
Commission had received: "We are woefully unprepared, and we would
like to see something done before some incident occurs." The
Commission's report identifies five main threats currently faced by
the US: the use of WMD by terrorists; the possession, and/or with
the capacity to manufacture, WMD by 'rogue' States (Iran, Iraq,
Libya, North Korea and others); the diversion of WMD materials and
expertise from the former Soviet Union; the transfer of WMD-related
materials and equipment by China; and the "destabilizing
consequences" of WMD programmes in the Middle East and South and
East Asia. To help combat these and other threats, the Commission
recommends the establishment of a Combating Proliferation Council,
to be chaired by a National Director for Combating Proliferation.
The Council would be in charge of coordinating all federal efforts
in the field, currently spread out across a staggering 96 different
agencies. The National Director would report to the President's
National Security Advisor. In a press release issued to accompany
the report's release, Deutch and Specter argued: "The [current]
system generally responds well to a crisis but lacks the tools to
ensure sustained, day-to-day focus and coordination to develop
long-term strategies." One Commission member, former Democratic
Senator James Exon (Nebraska), disassociated himself from the
recommendation to establish the new Council, arguing that it did
not go far enough. According to Exon: "What has been crafted, in my
opinion, is another lower-level working group." President Clinton
responded immediately to the Commission, pledging in a written
statement (14 July) that "serious consideration" would be given to
the recommendations. This consideration would take the form of a
report "with advice on specific steps" to be drawn up by National
Security Advisor Sandy Berger and delivered to the President within
60 days. On the day of the report's release, Senator Specter
announced he would be introducing legislation aimed at drawing up
an electronic database on weapons-related exports; the legislation
would require exporters to electronically file the contents of
shipments before dispatch, as opposed to the current system of
retrospective registering.
On 16 July, the latest six-monthly CIA report to Congress on
proliferation threats was released in declassified form. The report
cast doubt on the efficacy to date of changes made by both China
and Russia to their export control systems. With reference to
Beijing's reforms, the report notes: "The effect...of China's
nascent nuclear export controls is not yet clear; restructuring
among oversight entities and the defense industries may impede
implementation in the near term..." With reference to recent
changes in Russian policy, the report notes: "Despite these
decrees, the Government's commitment, willingness and ability to
curb proliferation-related transfers remains uncertain. Moreover,
economic conditions in Russia continued to deteriorate [over the
last six months], putting more pressure on Russian entities to
circumvent export controls."
Reports: Commission urges new effort to curb weapons
of mass destruction, United States Information Service, 14
July; Clinton orders review of anti-proliferation efforts,
Reuters, 14 July; US terrorist threats detailed, Associated
Press, 15 July; CIA - export controls slow weapons,
Associated Press, 17 July.
© 1999 The Acronym Institute.
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