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'Pursuing a New Nuclear Weapons Policy for the 21st Century: a White Paper,' Paul C. Robinson, President and Director, Sandia National Laboratories, US; released by Sandia National laboratories, March 22, 2001; presented at the 2nd Annual Nuclear Security Decisionmakers' Forum, Alberquerque, New Mexico, March 26-29.
Notes: for the full text of the White Paper, see http://www.sandia.gov/media/whitepaper/2001-04-Robinson.htm. For detailed arguments against low-yield nuclear weapons, see 'Low-Yield Earth-Penetrating Nuclear Weapons,' by Robert Nelson, in FAS Public Interest Report, the journal of the Federation of American Scientists, January/February 2001, available at http://www.fas.org/faspir/2001/v54nl/weapons.htm.
"... I served as an arms negotiator on the last two agreements before the dissolution of the Soviet Union and have spent most of my career enmeshed in the complexity of nuclear weapons issues on the government side of the table. It is abundantly clear...that formulating a new nuclear weapons policy for the start of the 21st Century will be a most difficult undertaking. While the often over-simplified picture of deterrence during the Cold War...has thankfully retreated into history, there are nevertheless huge arsenals of nuclear weapons and delivery systems, all in quite usable states, that could be brought back quickly to their Cold War postures. Additionally, throughout the Cold War and ever since, there has been a steady proliferation of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction by other nations around the globe. ... Russia has already begun to emphasize the importance of its arsenal of nuclear weapons to compensate for its limited conventional capabilities to deal with hostilities that appear to be increasing along its borders. It seems inescapable that the US must carefully think through how we should be preparing to deal with new threats from other corners of the world, including the role that nuclear weapons might serve in deterring these threats from ever reaching actual aggressions.
I personally see the abolition of nuclear weapons as an impractical dream in any foreseeable future. I came to this view from several directions. The first is the impossibility of ever 'uninventing' or erasing from the human mind the knowledge of how to build such weapons. While the sudden appearance of a few tens of nuclear weapons causes only a small stir in a world where several thousands of such weapons already exist, their appearance in a world without nuclear weapons would produce huge effects. ... Similarly, it is my sincere view that the majority of the nations who have now acquired arsenals of nuclear weapons believe them to be such potent tools for deterring conflicts that they would never surrender them. Against this backdrop, I recently began to worry that because there were few public statements by US officials in reaffirming the unique role which nuclear weapons play in ensuring US and world security, far too many people (including many in our own armed forces) were beginning to believe that perhaps nuclear weapons no longer had value. It seemed to me that it was time for someone to step forward and articulate the other side of these issues for the public: first, that nuclear weapons remain of vital importance to the security of the US and to our allies and friends (today and for the near future); and second, that nuclear weapons will likely have an enduring role in preserving the peace and preventing world wars for the foreseeable future.
The Role(s) of Nuclear Weapons
... In contrast to the situation facing Russia, I believe we cannot place an over-reliance on nuclear weapons, but that we must maintain adequate conventional capabilities to manage regional conflicts in any part of the world. Noting that the US has always considered nuclear weapons as 'weapons of last resort,' we need to give constant attention to improving conventional munitions in order to raise the threshold for which we would ever consider nuclear use. It is just as important for our policy makers to understand these interfaces as it is for our commanders. ...
Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Strategic Tool?
Throughout my career, I have had the opportunity to participate in a number of 'war games' in which the roles and uses of nuclear weapons had to be faced in scenarios that imagined military conflicts developing between the US and other potential adversaries. The totality of those games brought new realizations as to the role and purpose of nuclear weapons, in particular, how essential it is that deterrence be tailored in a different way for each potential aggressor nation. It also seemed abundantly clear that any use of nuclear weapons is, and always will be, strategic. Thus, I would propose we ban the term 'non-strategic nuclear weapons' as a non sequitur. ...
Let me...state my most important conclusion directly: I believe nuclear weapons must have an abiding place in the international scene for the foreseeable future. I believe that the world, in fact, would become more dangerous, not less dangerous, were US nuclear weapons to be absent. The most important role for our nuclear weapons is to serve as a 'sobering force,' one that can cap the level of destruction of military conflicts and thus force all sides to come to their senses. This is the enduring purpose of US nuclear weapons in the post-Cold War world. I regret that we have not yet captured such thinking in our public statements as to why the US will retain nuclear deterrence as a cornerstone of our defense policy, and urge that we do so in the upcoming Nuclear Posture Review. ...
Central Deterrence (and Capability One)
... Russia today is the only nation that we can conceive of with the potential to threaten the US national existence. It would be exceedingly foolish to allow our deterrent forces against Russia to weaken as long as that potential remains in place. Therefore, in the near term (say 10 years or so) our major plans and force decisions will continue to be based on hedging against Russia. The strategy and policy for continuing to deter Russia follows closely that which we developed during the Cold War. The current war-planning approach (the Single Integrated Operational Plan) and its configuration of forces have been transitioning somewhat in recent years, but are in surprisingly good shape. We would continue to focus on treaty-limited strategic weapons in configurations that lead to stability against surprise attacks and bound the uncertainties of each side's intentions and actions toward the other. Our future arms control efforts with Russia must endeavour to somehow take account of the total nuclear arsenals of each side, not just those within the START framework. Each side will want to evaluate carefully its needs for nuclear forces beyond the mutual deterrence purposes and seek ways to harmonize its forces. ...
I would assume that it is far preferable for our strategic relationship with China (where we are hoping to become stronger trading partners) that we should not single out China to be in a separate or specific category for nuclear deterrence. China has exercised considerable restraint in the rate that they have grown and modernized their strategic nuclear forces, and we should avoid any action on our part that could lead China to respond - either by increasing its nuclear forces substantially above the more modest strategic nuclear forces presently deployed or by speeding up the currently quite measured pace of its strategic nuclear modernization. These same issues will arise as the US begins to enhance its ballistic missile defense capabilities, in order to assure China that, while our defenses could be effective against an accidental launch, they are not being designed to counter their entire strategic deterrence force. Of course, if China ever were to substantially increase its forces and thereby place itself within a threat level more proximate to that of Russia, the changes in policy, strategy, and force approach the US would need to make would be obvious. We could respond at that time by configuring a force more in line with Central Deterrence (i.e., Capability One), having high confidence in its efficacy.
Deterrence of Wider Threats: A Second Capability
I would begin the discussion of deterring wide threats with another important observation: I believe that nuclear weapons do have a place and purpose today in other than a Russian context. Rather than inflame debates prematurely as to who is or may become America's enemies or adversaries, I would call the second force capability simply the 'Non-Russian Force' or Capability Two. In my early thinking on this subject, I even referred to this second force as the 'To Whom It May Concern' Force. ...
In several crises, US presidents have warned other nations that 'unspeakable destruction' would be the result should they resort to attacks on the US or its allies with such 'weapons of mass destruction.' Although the US has been careful not to suggest that such retaliations would inevitably mean we would use nuclear weapons, we have left open the possibility for aggressor states to conclude for themselves that perhaps we might indeed use such weapons. We have certainly wanted adversaries to think hard about this possibility. Unfortunately, we cannot enjoy the ambiguity of such declarations forever, even though the decision to seriously consider nuclear retaliation for use of less than nuclear weapons would carry a heavy burden of demonstrating 'proportionality.' I believe the fact that we have not thought through these complex issues sufficiently is the reason the last US administration chose not to publicize its most recent deterrent strategy.
I believe we face an even greater difficulty if we look at how we have been going about planning for potential Theater Nuclear Options (or TNOs). There has been no clear policy in place - I can even say there has been a lack of clear thinking in place - regarding 'limited nuclear attacks.' We have been reduced to contemplating within each theater...Area of Responsibility (AOR) the particular targets that should be held at risk and then analyzing appropriate options for attacking them with various weapons systems - nuclear and non-nuclear. But, without a well-understood and well-justified policy in place, the development of TNOs are of limited value and might even appear to be 'nuclear war fighting.' Any nuclear battle plans without solid policy bases are certain to prove unsatisfactory, and the challenge for us today is to develop that sound policy foundation. I believe that our policy in these cases should emulate our Cold War policies; that is, it should focus first on deterrence of conflict, escalation control, and war prevention; and contemplate nuclear attacks only if deterrence should fail in these aims.
Policy for Deterrence of Wider Threats (Capability Two)
Among the fundamentals of a policy, the US should re-emphasize the principle it has embraced for most of the Cold War, namely that we will never directly or systematically target civilians. This principle has been a foundation of our Russian deterrence policy as well, although far too few are even aware of it. I believe I am safe in asserting that in considering nuclear deterrence in a non-Russian context, collateral damage issues will be of even greater importance than ever before. These issues must be better understood in contemplating nuclear attacks against a North Korea, an Iran, an Iraq, or even a China.
The fact that civilians in these nations have no voice in developing the policies of their government would make their slaughter abhorrent to Americans, as it would be to any well-meaning peoples of the world. Targeting the leadership, along with military forces and military capabilities - the very tools of aggression - as was done against the Soviet Union; these are the appropriate primary targets that should be held at risk under any US deterrent policy. In examining the characteristics of post-Cold War deterrence, it appears important to make our policy and plans both country and leadership specific. At the same time, we should appropriately keep our thoughts confidential regarding whom or how. ... While we should remain ambiguous about the details of what our specific responses to their acts of aggression would be, we must make abundantly clear that our actions would have terrible consequences for them. Finally, the most important foundation for our policies and actions, and the most important part of our communications to the other side in an impending crisis must be that we have the national will, as well as the full means, to carry out our intended actions. ...
US Declaratory Policies and Communications
I believe it will be important to make a part of our declaratory policy that the United States' ultimate intent, should it ever have to unleash a nuclear attack against any aggressor, would be to threaten the survival of the regime leading that state. Here, I do not mean that the aggressor state would cease to exist as a nation, but that governance under the existing national government could no longer be tolerated. Thus, unless that state's leaders are deterred from the acts we are seeking to deter, our war aims would be single-minded - to destroy that leadership's ability to govern. Because it is so important that this never be just an idle boast, which could undercut deterrence, I believe it is essential for us to pre-plan our targets for any likely contingency. While adaptive planning capabilities will be necessary also and important in preparing us to handle events we cannot always predict or know, they just cannot rise to the same level of sophistication as we could achieve in deliberative planning. Only with the luxury of contemplation are we likely to perfect the messages our actions should send to the extant, as well as all future, combatants.
... [T]he most difficult issue may be the question of whether or not the US would attack a nation with nuclear arms, if that nation possessed biological or chemical weapons but did not possess nuclear arms at the time (nor was it allied to a nation who had nuclear weapons). We have some historical examples of this difficulty, and it is imperative that the US must avoid being viewed as a 'global hegemon.' In spite of growing international pressures, we have attempted to prevent our hands from being tied by such a constraint - preferring to have the policy appear in Executive Orders and Declaratory Policies that could be changed, rather than allowing treaty provisions to govern this issue. I believe this is the right course of action, and that those who would advocate that we should not be allowed to consider deterring chemical or biological attacks with our nuclear arsenal must first show how such attacks might be deterred by other means.
Nuclear Alliances
Another issue that needs much more careful thought is the question of nuclear alliances. I believe that the NATO alliance has been of major importance because of the fact that it was a nuclear alliance. It also has prevented further proliferation by the member states because of the possibility of enjoying the benefits of nuclear deterrence through burden sharing of those forces within the alliance. Today the NATO dual-capable air nuclear forces are admittedly of lower value in a joint strategy of Russian deterrence, owing to the fact that the Russian borders have receded so far away from the bases, and because it is so unlikely these aircraft could penetrate Russia's substantial air-defenses. Yet I believe these dual-capable air forces could be an extremely important component of an Allied force to deter aggression in wider parts of the world; and thus I would suggest that the NATO nuclear forces could make important contributions in deterring wider threats, while also motivating NATO to preserve the safety, security, and operational readiness of deployed NATO nuclear forces, as the Russian threat (hopefully) recedes.
An important question for the future will be whether nuclear alliances would be advantageous in other parts of the world. In particular, the actions of India and Pakistan to develop and field nuclear forces are causing considerable angst throughout the South Asian region. The large populations there, in a burgeoning array of nation states - some quite unstable already - will doubtless present many challenges in the future. The issue of whether, and if so how, to consider the creation of nuclear alliances in that part of the world is a timely issue for the US and others to contemplate.
Characteristics of Capability Two: Deterrence of Wider Threats
Let me now advance to a discussion of potential characteristics of a force capability designed to deter wider threats. In some past conflicts, such as the bombing strike against Libya, and during the planning stages of other contemplated attacks, overflight of noncombatant nations (by bombers or cruise missiles) was a major consideration in determining whether or how to undertake such attacks. Penetration of the air space of a sovereign nation with bombers or cruise missiles would be a violation of international law, as would be the re-entry of a ballistic warhead through such air space (even if it travelled beyond). Such concerns would multiply considerably, if we should contemplate nuclear deterrence in a non-Russian context. For example, if our craft or missiles had to fly near (or through) Russian borders, Russia might well believe that the US was attacking them, and a retaliatory response could be triggered. Thus, it would appear that ICBMs may be of lesser utility in the second capability of our forces, if these would have to transit Russia in flying en route to targets in the nations of concern.
Of course, if future missiles can have greatly increased ranges, allowing them to fly over the South Pole or at other polar angles, the difficulty of avoiding Russian overflight paths would be alleviated. Ballistic and cruise missile-carrying submarines inherently provide some relief against these overflight problems, but their patrol areas would have to be altered from what is currently the case. It should also be noted that while it is theoretically possible to reach any target on earth with manned bombers, very significant tanker support would be required in many parts of the globe.
Next, outside of some number of targets in China, there is little real utility or need in having any MIRVed missiles in Capability Two. I think we must contemplate placing some number of singlet re-entry vehicles carrying low-yield weapons on submarine-launched missiles. These, along with cruise missiles from both bombers and submarines, are likely to be the most important weapons in Capability Two because they also allow us to have 'forward-basing' in a crisis, again without encountering major overflight difficulties.
In a somewhat obvious way, aside from the still perplexing issues of how to hold at risk hardened or deeply buried underground targets, I believe that we would desire primarily low-yield weapons with highly accurate delivery systems for deterrence in the non-Russian world. Here, I'm not talking about sub-kiloton weapons (i.e., 'mini-nukes') as some have advocated, but devices in the low-kiloton regime, in order to contemplate the destruction of some buried or hidden targets, while being mindful of the need to minimize collateral damage. I believe we can achieve the low-yield levels that are likely to be most appropriate for deterring wider threats, particularly if we are unable to design and test new weapons under a nuclear testing moratorium, by depending on the features inherent in many designs in the current US stockpile. An obvious and also very effective approach to obtain low-yield devices would be to use dummy secondaries as a way of quickly achieving single-stage yields (primary-only yields) without having to modify the devices, or to repeat flight tests for the delivery systems, or to conduct additional nuclear testing.
There are many other aspects of modernizing the warheads' electronics as we bring them into being as a Capability Two. We could add the ability to retain a much larger number of pre-planned targets within each delivery system, either within the electronic memories of each warhead or within the fire control systems, as has been achieved in advanced conventional systems. I believe that we will also want to consider possibilities for instantly determining impact coordinates and instant bomb damage assessment (BDA), through already-developed technology, in conjunction with the existing satellite-based nuclear explosion detection system.
Such a system would critically depend on the defense satellite constellations still functioning during a conflict in which only a limited number of nuclear weapons would be available for use. During the Cold War, we had always assumed that, in any strategic nuclear conflict with Russia, the satellite constellations would probably be severely damaged. Changing this assumption might open up even greater opportunities for imagination, e.g., the ability to include GPS guidance systems for even greater precision in nuclear weapon delivery. Many of the improved guidance systems now being incorporated into a variety of modern conventional munitions could quite easily be applied to nuclear delivery vehicles. Similarly, for the first time it should be possible to minimize collateral damage (and insure against any compromise of design technology) by including technology that could harmlessly destroy any US warhead without giving nuclear yield, if it had flown off course to the extent that it would fall outside pre-planned delivery coordinates.
Arms Control Implications of the Two Capability Framework
The partitioning of our nuclear forces into two different capability sets, each designed for a different primary purpose, may also present some opportunities for fresh thinking in the area of arms control. Any arms control issues or opportunities ought to be considered in concert with the development of new US national security strategy, rather than added on later. As the new administration unfolds its arms control strategy it will be timely to examine how the creation of two distinct policies, strategies, and force capabilities might solve some of the classic problems inherent in past agreements. For example, the US (and no doubt the Russians also) laboured heavily in both the INF and START negotiations to develop definitions that, while restraining each side's strategic nuclear forces in agreed ways, would not also overly constrain the development of new delivery systems intended for conventional payloads. Similar problems can be easily envisioned as we seek to continue the current limitations on forces intended for Central Deterrence, while also segmenting some of our nuclear force capabilities for Deterring Wider Threats.
A second problem that must be considered in the arms control arena, as well as in defense planning, is the likely continuing trend of proliferation of both nuclear and other destructive weapons in rogue states - who could not hope to directly defeat the United States in a general conflict, but who might very well be prepared to use these weapons in an attempt to deter the US from intervening in what they perceive to be 'their' regional conflicts. So far the existing agreements (the Non-Proliferation Treaty, agreements to create nuclear weapon-free zones, or nuclear test ban treaties) have had only marginal success. Eventual agreements for limiting Capability Two forces would need to be evaluated against the totality of such potential threats. ..."
© 2001 The Acronym Institute.