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January 10 saw the publication of an unclassified summary of the fourth annual US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) of Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015. The report, mandated by the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, is compiled and submitted by the National Foreign Intelligence Board under the Director of Central Intelligence, George J. Tenet. Tenet, as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), heads the US Intelligence Community (IC), comprised of 13 separate government agencies, all of which provide input to the NIE.
The Estimate draws two basic conclusions: that the US may face limited ballistic missile threats from two or three countries before 2015; and that the US is more likely to face attack with weapons of mass destruction (WMD) using non-missile means of delivery.
With regard to the first conclusion, the Estimate states: "Most Intelligence Community agencies project that before 2015 the United States most likely will face ICBM threats from North Korea and Iran, and possibly from Iraq - barring significant changes in their political orientations - in addition to the longstanding missile forces of Russia and China. One agency assesses that the United States is unlikely to face an ICBM threat from Iran before 2015."
With regard to the second conclusion, the NIE notes: "Non-missile means of delivering weapons of mass destruction do not provide the same prestige or degree of deterrence and coercive diplomacy associated with ICBMs. Nevertheless, concern remains about options for delivering WMD to the United States without missiles by state and non-state actors. Ships, trucks, airplanes, and other means may be used. In fact, the Intelligence Community judges that US territory is more likely to be attacked with WMD using non-missile..." Six principal reasons were then adduced as the basis of this judgment: non-missile means of WMD-delivery are "less expensive than developing and producing ICBMS', can "be covertly developed and employed", would probably "be more reliable than ICBMs that have not completed rigorous testing and validation programs", would probably "be much more accurate than emerging ICBMs over the next 15 years", would probably "be more effective for disseminating biological warfare agent than a ballistic missile", and would "avoid missile defenses".
The NIE also predicted a significant enhancement of China's strategic nuclear arsenal in the period up to 2015. Stating that China currently has around 30 single-warhead ICBMs, the Estimate reads: "The IC has differing projections of the overall size of Chinese strategic ballistic missile forces over the next 15 years, ranging from about 75 to 100 warheads deployed primarily against the United States. MIRVing [equipping missiles with multiple and independently-targetable warheads] and missile defense countermeasures would be factors in the ultimate size of the force. In addition, China would have about two dozen shorter-range DF-31 and CSS-3 ICBMs that could reach part of the United States."
China immediately denigrated the projections. According to Foreign Ministry spokesperson Sun Yuxi (January 10): "Such news is just baseless speculation. China will increase its defence power based on its own needs."
US and Chinese officials have been continuing their discussions on non-proliferation issues. Undersecretary of State John Bolton held talks with Vice Foreign Minister Wang Guangya in Washington on November 30. The Bush administration is urging tougher policies from Beijing on missile exports, particularly to Pakistan. In particular, the US is unpersuaded that Beijing is honouring a November 2000 commitment, in the words of a Chinese government statement, not "to assist, in any way, any country in the development of ballistic missiles that can be used to deliver nuclear payloads" (see Disarmament Diplomacy No. 52, November 2000). In early September, the US imposed sanctions on the Chinese Metallurgical Corporation for allegedly supplying ballistic missile equipment to Islamabad. On November 23, an unnamed US official commented: "In our view, the ball's in their court. It's up to them to do what's necessary to resume full implementation of the arrangement on their side. They can see the new kind of world we're all in, the new kind of relationship they can have with the US. The ability of that relationship to reach its full extent is going to be limited by this missile problem if it's not resolved."
See also: Disarmament Documentation
Reports: US, China to lock horns on missile proliferation, Reuters, November 23; US, China talk nuclear proliferation, Associated Press, November 30; US to ask China again - halt Pakistan missile aid, Reuters, November 30; Missile developments and the ballistic missile threat through 2015, unclassified summary of US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), released January, available from the CIA website (http://www.cia.gov); CIA highlights China missile threat, Associated Press, January 10; China denies US report on its nuclear ambitions, Reuters, January 10; New intelligence report alters missile threat projections, Washington File, January 11.
© 2002 The Acronym Institute.