Disarmament Diplomacy

Issue No. 67, October - November 2002

News Review

Russia Raises CFE, Nuclear Concerns over NATO Expansion

Despite the general, marked improvement in Russia-NATO relations in the last twelve months, Moscow continues to voice concern about aspects of the possible expansion of NATO to include the former-Soviet Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The three countries are not members of the 30-state Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty - in force since 1992 and significantly adapted at the Istanbul OSCE Summit in November 1999 - giving rise to unease about destabilising conventional NATO deployments close to Russian territory. In addition, fears have been expressed about future Alliance nuclear deployments in the region.

With regard to concern over conventional force levels, a Russian Foreign Ministry statement noted (September 2): "The CFE Treaty Joint Consultative Group (JCG) is beginning its work in Vienna on September 3 after the summer break. ... In July 2002 the Russian Federation stated its concerns within the JCG in a well-substantiated way over the plans to invite new members to NATO, some of which are not parties to the CFE Treaty and, accordingly, do not fall under its restrictions. We expect a positive reaction to necessity raised by us to use the CFE Treaty mechanisms for preserving the balance of forces and stability in Europe."

With regard to concern over future nuclear deployments, an unnamed Russian Defence Ministry official was quoted by the Interfax-Military news agency on September 16 as claiming: "We have information that some Baltic heads [of state] have already expressed their readiness to deploy any type of NATO weapon, including tactical nuclear arms, after their countries join the Alliance." On September 17, Lithuanian Defence Minister Linas Linkevicious responded: "Such Russia fears are completely ungrounded." The same day, Latvian Prime Minister Andris Berzins told the Associated Press that the issue of tactical nuclear deployments had at no point been raised by NATO officials and that "we don't see any future need for them to do so". Less emphatically, Madis Mikko, a spokesperson for the Estonian Defence Ministry, told reporters (September 17) that, while such deployments had not been ruled out, "in the foreseeable future there are no [such] plans".

Russian officials reportedly raised both sets of concern during an informal meeting of NATO Defence Ministers in Warsaw on September 14-25. According to an unnamed NATO official, quoted by Reuters on September 25, "the Russians were politely rebuffed". During a press conference in the Polish capital (September 25), US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld was asked about the issue:

"Question: 'Russia is now trying to push very much the linkage between the CFE agreement and [NATO] enlargement...'

Rumsfeld: 'I don't see any linkage between NATO enlargement and CFE, and I don't know any NATO countries that do.'

Question: 'What is your response to Russia's willingness to tie those two things together?'

Rumsfeld: 'Statements were made by the Russians, statements were made by others. The obvious conclusion is that there is no linkage between these two [subjects] and that those countries will do what they will do when they end up entering NATO... I think [that] is the correct way to characterise at least the United States view.'"

Note: on October 2, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Alexander Yakovenko reacted enthusiastically to recent comments suggesting Latvian willingness to join the CFE regime:

"Question: 'Speaking at a public event a few days ago, Latvian Minister of Foreign Affairs Indulis Berzins made a statement to the effect that Riga attaches great importance to the norms and political obligations arising from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, and that Latvia has never refused to accede to the adapted Treaty. Please comment.'

Yakovenko: 'We state with satisfaction the intention of Latvia expressed by Indulis Berzins to accede to the adapted CFE Treaty, which plays a very important role in maintaining military-political stability in Europe. We hope that this new constructive position of Riga will soon be given effect, and that Latvia by its practical actions will prove that it is a predictable and reliable partner in Europe.'"

Reports: On resumption of work of Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty Joint Consultative Group, Russian Foreign Ministry Statement, Document 1689-02-09-2002, September 2; Baltics deny they'll deploy nuclear weapons as NATO members, Associated Press, September 17; Informal meeting of NATO Defence ministers, Warsaw, September 24-25, NATO website (http://www.nato.int); NATO rebuffs Russia's qualms on Baltics, Georgia, Reuters, September 25; Remarks by Alexander Yakovenko, official spokesman of Russia's Foreign Ministry, October 2, 2002, Russian Foreign Ministry transcript.

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