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The Conference on Disarmament (CD) nearly broke its nine-year impasse on March 29, when it was expected to adopt a work programme proposed by its six presidents for the year, the ambassadors of South Africa, Sri Lanka, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and Syria (known as the P6). The proposal (reproduced verbatim below) would have appointed four ambassadors as "Coordinators to preside over" negotiations on a fissile materials (for weapons) production ban (fissban) and "substantive discussions" on nuclear disarmament, prevention of an arms race in outer space (PAROS), and negative security assurances (NSA) respectively.
Hopes were dashed once again, however, as China and the group of Arab states said that they needed more time for their capitals to decide on the P6 proposal, which had been tabled on March 23.
The current President, Ambassador Sarala Fernando of Sri Lanka, then appeared to obtain the CD's agreement to hold an intersessional meeting, but this is now being called into question by Pakistan. While some delegations made clear their hope that the intersessional meeting would adopt the work programme before the NPT PrepCom opens on April 30, this now looks unlikely, as a few states have begun playing that familiar tactic of moving the goalposts. Pakistan argued that consensus had not been obtained to hold the intersessional meeting, and China said that agreeing to hold an intersessional meeting did not mean they had agreed to take the decision on the work programme. Meanwhile, as Israel - which in 1998 was the last CD member to join consensus on negotiating a fissban - remains quiet, India and Iran expressed reservations about the P6 work programme during the CD session on March 30.
The CD is now drinking at the Last Chance Saloon. It's been close to agreement before, but since 1998 not this close. Although it has managed to have more useful focussed discussions in recent years under the auspices of the rotating presidencies, the last agreement to conduct negotiations was in July 1998, when a fissban working group was convened in accordance with the 'Shannon mandate', adopted in March 1995. But when the time came to re-adopt the work programme in January 1999, China refused, due to concerns about US missile defence plans. A few years later, when China was willing to make concessions, the United States blocked consensus to avoid discussing PAROS and nuclear disarmament. This time, the US has made concessions, agreeing to substantive discussions on PAROS and nuclear disarmament in return for negotiations on a fissban "without preconditions" (and without the Shannon mandate). The P6 have crafted a delicate but workable balance, but if others shift the goalposts once more, the CD will again fail. And this time failure could prove fatal, as a growing number of governments are considering withdrawing or further downgrading the resources they devote to this multilateral forum.
"The Conference on Disarmament decides, without prejudice to future work and negotiations on its agenda items,
1. To appoint Ambassador Strømmen as Co-ordinator to preside over substantive discussions on nuclear disarmament and prevention of nuclear war.
The Co-ordinator shall present a report to the Conference on Disarmament on the progress of the work before the conclusion of the second part of the current session.
2. To appoint Ambassador Trezza as Co-ordinator to preside over negotiations, without preconditions on a non-discriminatory and multilateral treaty banning the production of fissile materials for nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.
The Co-ordinator shall present a report to the Conference on Disarmament on the progress of the work before the conclusion of the second part of the current session.
3. To appoint Ambassador Meyer as Co-ordinator to preside over substantive discussions dealing with issues related to Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space.
The Co-ordinator shall present a report to the Conference on Disarmament on the progress of the work before the conclusion of the second part of the current session.
4. To appoint Ambassador Paranhos as Co-ordinator to preside over substantive discussions dealing with appropriate international arrangements to assure non-nuclear weapon States against the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons.
The Co-ordinator shall present a report to the Conference on Disarmament on the progress of the work before the conclusion of the second part of the current session."
"Following the above decision by the Conference on the appointment of four Co-ordinators for specific issues, there is also an understanding in the Conference that Co-ordinators for the agenda items previously appointed by the 2007 Presidents of the Conference will continue their work, as appropriate and under the authority of the 2007 Presidents of the Conference, during the second part of the current session."
Rebecca Johnson
For updates on the CD, see Reaching Critical Will website at http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/political/cd/
© 2007 The Acronym Institute.